Lagos is one of the fastest-growing cities globally, with a population of between 18 and 20 million and an annual growth rate of 6%. While rapid urbanisation has vastly outstripped the state’s capacity to provide adequate infrastructure, Lagos’s position as the commercial hub and economic powerhouse of Nigeria presents several development opportunities – despite its challenges.
A newly published ACRC report by Taibat Lawanson, Lindsay Sawyer and Damilola Olalekan explores the complex dynamics of contested political systems and their impact on the people of Lagos. Employing ACRC’s holistic framework, the authors integrate political settlements analysis, city system mapping and domain studies to provide a comprehensive overview of the city’s multifaceted urban development landscape.
Navigating the political landscape
Since its transition to electoral democracy in 1999, Nigeria has experienced relative political stability. However, party politics goes hand in hand with weak institutional capacity. Administratively, Lagos has overlapping jurisdictions across federal, state and local governments, with traditional rulers, trade unions and community-based associations also playing vital roles.
Lagos has been shaped by conflicting rationalities of development. Political and economic entanglements result in unequal urban outcomes, which tend to favour some portions of society above others. On one hand, the government, along with political and economic elites, shape city dynamics – largely for their own benefit. On the other, the rest of the city – mostly comprised of informal actors or informal settlement residents – negotiate access to city resources for their own survival. So while elites are largely united behind a “megacity” vision of transforming Lagos into a premier investment destination, this leads to the state clashing with informal settlement residents and traders – such as through forced evictions, clearing informal settlements and banning certain modes of informal transport.
Identifying opportunities to bolster city systems
The research found that systemic deficiencies in Lagos are largely due to the inability of the state to provide for the city’s vast and growing population. In the face of these challenging circumstances, non-state service providers step in to fill these gaps. City residents show resilience and innovation in coping with significant deficits in systems through both individual actions and community responses. Yet tensions occur when the state seeks to regulate these informal or private service providers, or gatekeep their activities.
Energy poverty in Lagos is pervasive, impacting residents’ day-to-day lives. Unpredictable grid electricity means those who can afford it rely on diesel generators and invertors/battery storage. Yet this places further financial strain on individuals and businesses, as well as contributing to environmental pollution. Poor drainage and sanitation lead to frequent flooding and unsanitary living conditions. Although these issues affect all sections of society, accessibility to private providers often depends on income, further reinforcing inequalities.
Informality is extensive in Lagos, providing critical economic opportunities for low-income and marginalised residents. Of the state’s labour force of around 7.5 million, approximately three-quarters work in the informal economy – encompassing informal housing, transport, healthcare and other sectors. While the government tolerates much of this informal activity, it is frequently targeted for “clean ups” or removal as part of political campaigns and flexing of power.
Key findings from urban development domain studies
Safety and security
Crime, youth violence and police brutality are widespread in Lagos. The research identifies youth unemployment, inequality and worsened socioeconomic and living conditions as key enablers of insecurity in the city. Efforts to improve safety and security are undertaken by both state and non-state actors. In addition to various state agencies, including the police force, non-state and community efforts – such as community-based vigilante groups – have emerged to extend security provision in the city.
Lagos is also vulnerable to disasters and emergency incidents, such as flooding, fires, building collapses and road accidents. Intensifying rains as a result of climate change are exacerbating flooding, while the rise in sea level is also a severe threat to many city residents. Women, children and people with disabilities are especially at risk, with the city’s emergency infrastructure, capacity and planning currently insufficient to cope with these growing threats.
Housing
A crisis of affordable middle- and low-income housing from the formal public and private sectors means most Lagosians live in informal rental housing. These dwellings vary widely in condition, with landlords often demanding two years’ rent in advance – despite this being banned more than a decade ago. Mortgages are unavailable for those on low incomes, and allocation of state-built housing is often based on political patronage or affiliation.
Cooperative societies providing loans for procuring and developing assets could be key in the solution of affordable housing – and for building climate-resilient communities.
Structural transformation
As in many African cities, structural transformation has not kept up with rapid urbanisation in Lagos. While this urbanisation has brought a shift of labour from the agricultural sector, and rising services sector employment, it has had little effect on manufacturing.
Research findings show that inadequate infrastructure presents a challenge to structural transformation in Lagos – particularly regarding electricity provision, the transportation network, a hostile business environment and the problem of multiple taxation.
Neighbourhood and district economic development
With a predominantly informal economy, household microenterprises (HMEs), mainly run by women, are vital to the livelihoods of Lagos residents. These HMEs provide key services and goods to residents, including hairdressing, carpentry, food processing and vending.
Inadequate access to basic services and little or no access to credit for HMEs present significant challenges to their operation and growth.
Drawing on opportunities identified through the research and analysis, the authors identify various promising avenues for future research and action – highlighting the potential of urban reform coalitions, along with a need for civil service and local government reforms. The report concludes with a number of recommendations of areas for future research and priorities for policymakers and practitioners.
Header photo credit: peeterv / Getty Images (via Canva Pro). Traffic and street market in Ikorodu district, Lagos.
Note: This article presents the views of the authors featured and does not necessarily represent the views of the African Cities Research Consortium as a whole.
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